http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/31/stories/2010053157240400.htm
My monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 31:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea noticed a couple of days ago by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) was found gathering in strength on Sunday.
In its bulletin for the day, the IMD said this evolving system would turn into a low pressure area during the next two days. It would by then move slightly in the northwest direction to be located over southeast and east central Arabian Sea.
The weather models of the IMD trace the system gaining further in strength (to become a depression and a deep depression) over the next seven days to make a landfall along the Gujarat coast. The models also show the system dragging rainfall activity along the entire western coast during this period. But a bulk of the precipitation under the influence of this system is seen to occur in the sea.
The outlook for the period up to June 4 favours widespread rain/thundershowers in Kerala, Lakshadweep Islands and coastal and south interior Karnataka. Rainfall occurred at many places in Kerala during the 24 hours ending 8.30 a.m., with Kanjirappally receiving a downpour of 7 cm. Kochi airport received 6 cm of rainfall and Kottayam, Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram 5 cm each.
*****
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Friday, May 28, 2010
Increase in rainfall forecast
http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/29/stories/2010052960370400.htm
My monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 29:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday saw the beginnings of a cyclonic circulation in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the southeast Arabian Sea holding promise of an increase in the intensity of rainfall in the coastal areas of Kerala.
The experimental Global Forecasting System products of the IMD show the winds perambulating over the region turning anticlockwise the monsoon flow from the southwest Indian Ocean into the southern part of the peninsula over the next two days from its present orientation from west to east very close to the southern tip of the State.
The model also indicates a progressive strengthening of the winds over the next two-three days, which would mean the high range areas of the State getting their first substantial rain of the unfolding season by the beginning of next week as the winds blow the rainclouds deep inland.
The IMD in its bulletin for the day announced its expectation of the monsoon onset over Kerala on May 31. Models indicate the development of organised convection over the south Arabian Sea from May 30 and the convection growing into a monsoon onset vortex close to the State's coast.
Although the vortex subsequently is traced to spin away from the coast in a north-northwest direction, it is expected to strengthen the southwesterly monsoon flow into the State's coast.
Nedumangad received heavy rainfall of 9 cm during the 24 hours ending 8.30 a.m. on Friday. Mancompu received 6 cm of rainfall, Koyilandy 3 cm and Alappuzha and Kanjarappally 2 cm each.
The catchments of Idukki hydroelectric project received moderate widespread rainfall, with Peerumedu getting 2 cm and Idukki town 1 cm. Aryankavu deep inland also received 1 cm of rainfall.
*****
My monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 29:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday saw the beginnings of a cyclonic circulation in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the southeast Arabian Sea holding promise of an increase in the intensity of rainfall in the coastal areas of Kerala.
The experimental Global Forecasting System products of the IMD show the winds perambulating over the region turning anticlockwise the monsoon flow from the southwest Indian Ocean into the southern part of the peninsula over the next two days from its present orientation from west to east very close to the southern tip of the State.
The model also indicates a progressive strengthening of the winds over the next two-three days, which would mean the high range areas of the State getting their first substantial rain of the unfolding season by the beginning of next week as the winds blow the rainclouds deep inland.
The IMD in its bulletin for the day announced its expectation of the monsoon onset over Kerala on May 31. Models indicate the development of organised convection over the south Arabian Sea from May 30 and the convection growing into a monsoon onset vortex close to the State's coast.
Although the vortex subsequently is traced to spin away from the coast in a north-northwest direction, it is expected to strengthen the southwesterly monsoon flow into the State's coast.
Nedumangad received heavy rainfall of 9 cm during the 24 hours ending 8.30 a.m. on Friday. Mancompu received 6 cm of rainfall, Koyilandy 3 cm and Alappuzha and Kanjarappally 2 cm each.
The catchments of Idukki hydroelectric project received moderate widespread rainfall, with Peerumedu getting 2 cm and Idukki town 1 cm. Aryankavu deep inland also received 1 cm of rainfall.
*****
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Monsoon onset likely in 3-4 days, says IMD
My monsoon-watch story filed on May 27. It was not published on May 28 since our New Delhi bureau had also filed a report based on IMD sources:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday announced the likelihood of the southwest monsoon setting in over Kerala any time during the next three-four days.
In its bulletin for the day, the IMD said conditions were becoming favourable for the monsoon onset. The outlook for the period up to June 1 favours a steady increase in rainfall activity over Lakshadweep, Kerala and south Karnataka.
The IMD’s atmospheric pressure charts show a trough (channel of drop in atmospheric pressure) looping from the near offshore areas of the State into the inlands, suggesting ideal conditions for the precipitation of water vapour. The winds from the Indian Ocean too have assumed westerly direction almost up to the very southern tip of the peninsula.
Along the length of the State’s coastline, the winds are beginning to churn. Numerical weather prediction models indicate the possibility of an upper air cyclonic circulation forming over the southeast Arabian Sea close to the State’s shore within the next two-three days.
This could spin the monsoon flow anticlockwise on course into the peninsula from its present west-to-east direction past the Comerin area, besides causing heavy rainfall within the range of its perambulating movement.
Rainfall occurred at many places along the coast of the State on Thursday. During the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m., Thalassery and Kottayam received 4 cm of rainfall each, Kannur and Vadakara 3 cm each and Thiruvananthapuram airport 2 cm of rainfall. Midland places such as Piravam, Mavelikara, Konni and Nedumangad also received 1 cm of rainfall each. Deeper inland, Aryankavu received 1 cm rainfall.
*****
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday announced the likelihood of the southwest monsoon setting in over Kerala any time during the next three-four days.
In its bulletin for the day, the IMD said conditions were becoming favourable for the monsoon onset. The outlook for the period up to June 1 favours a steady increase in rainfall activity over Lakshadweep, Kerala and south Karnataka.
The IMD’s atmospheric pressure charts show a trough (channel of drop in atmospheric pressure) looping from the near offshore areas of the State into the inlands, suggesting ideal conditions for the precipitation of water vapour. The winds from the Indian Ocean too have assumed westerly direction almost up to the very southern tip of the peninsula.
Along the length of the State’s coastline, the winds are beginning to churn. Numerical weather prediction models indicate the possibility of an upper air cyclonic circulation forming over the southeast Arabian Sea close to the State’s shore within the next two-three days.
This could spin the monsoon flow anticlockwise on course into the peninsula from its present west-to-east direction past the Comerin area, besides causing heavy rainfall within the range of its perambulating movement.
Rainfall occurred at many places along the coast of the State on Thursday. During the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m., Thalassery and Kottayam received 4 cm of rainfall each, Kannur and Vadakara 3 cm each and Thiruvananthapuram airport 2 cm of rainfall. Midland places such as Piravam, Mavelikara, Konni and Nedumangad also received 1 cm of rainfall each. Deeper inland, Aryankavu received 1 cm rainfall.
*****
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Monsoon keeps Kerala waiting
http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/27/stories/2010052759390400.htm
My monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 27:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The sun moved in and out of rainclouds over Kerala on a day of rain and sunshine on Wednesday.
Aluva received a heavy downpour of 14 cm during the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Wednesday. Kanjirappally (8 cm), Kochi airport and Kottayam (7 cm each) also received heavy rainfall. Several other centres spread across the length of the State received rainfall measuring between 4 cm and 1 cm on the gauge.
The rains have not penetrated beyond the midlands so far this week. There have been a few good spells of rainfall during the course of the week along the plains stretching towards the Palakkad gap and also very isolated downpours in the highlands of Idukki.
The month of May so far has been 10 per cent deficient in rainfall in the catchments of Kerala State Electricity Board's hydroelectric projects.
The winds from the seas are yet to attain sufficient power to drive the rainclouds up the mountain areas of the Western Ghats.
Wind direction
The wind direction too is yet to fall into the monsoon pattern, with a northwesterly flow pressing into the seasonal southwesterly winds. An eddying of currents is taking place around the meeting place of the two flows off the Kerala coast causing widespread rainfall in the coastal and midland areas of the State.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its bulletin on Wednesday predicted an increase in rainfall activity in Kerala and coastal Karnataka in the latter half of this week, suggesting its expectation of the monsoon breaking out over the subcontinent by then.
*****
My monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 27:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The sun moved in and out of rainclouds over Kerala on a day of rain and sunshine on Wednesday.
Aluva received a heavy downpour of 14 cm during the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Wednesday. Kanjirappally (8 cm), Kochi airport and Kottayam (7 cm each) also received heavy rainfall. Several other centres spread across the length of the State received rainfall measuring between 4 cm and 1 cm on the gauge.
The rains have not penetrated beyond the midlands so far this week. There have been a few good spells of rainfall during the course of the week along the plains stretching towards the Palakkad gap and also very isolated downpours in the highlands of Idukki.
The month of May so far has been 10 per cent deficient in rainfall in the catchments of Kerala State Electricity Board's hydroelectric projects.
The winds from the seas are yet to attain sufficient power to drive the rainclouds up the mountain areas of the Western Ghats.
Wind direction
The wind direction too is yet to fall into the monsoon pattern, with a northwesterly flow pressing into the seasonal southwesterly winds. An eddying of currents is taking place around the meeting place of the two flows off the Kerala coast causing widespread rainfall in the coastal and midland areas of the State.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its bulletin on Wednesday predicted an increase in rainfall activity in Kerala and coastal Karnataka in the latter half of this week, suggesting its expectation of the monsoon breaking out over the subcontinent by then.
*****
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Low pressure may lead to more rainfall
http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/26/stories/2010052659740600.htm
My monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 26:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Chennai Regional Meteorological Centre's weather models on Tuesday showed a low pressure system persisting off the Kerala coast over the Lakshadweep Islands, causing an eddying of the water vapour currents at different levels of the atmosphere leading to precipitation.
This churning brought widespread rainfall in Kerala during the day. The system is seen to remain over the area for the next three days covered by the models and, therefore, the prospects are for more rainfall, heavy in some places, into the latter half of this week.
Satellite pictures at different hours during the course of the day showed rainclouds flowing from the westerly direction into the State's coastline, which is as it should be under ideal monsoon conditions (unless the direction is from the south-westerly direction).
During the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Tuesday, Thiruvalla received 8 cm of rainfall, Varkala 6 cm and Irinjalakkuda, Cherthala, Chengannur, Vaikom, Aryankavu and Punalur 4 cm of rainfall each. More than a dozen other centres received between 3cm and 1 cm of rainfall on the gauge.
*****
My monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 26:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Chennai Regional Meteorological Centre's weather models on Tuesday showed a low pressure system persisting off the Kerala coast over the Lakshadweep Islands, causing an eddying of the water vapour currents at different levels of the atmosphere leading to precipitation.
This churning brought widespread rainfall in Kerala during the day. The system is seen to remain over the area for the next three days covered by the models and, therefore, the prospects are for more rainfall, heavy in some places, into the latter half of this week.
Satellite pictures at different hours during the course of the day showed rainclouds flowing from the westerly direction into the State's coastline, which is as it should be under ideal monsoon conditions (unless the direction is from the south-westerly direction).
During the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Tuesday, Thiruvalla received 8 cm of rainfall, Varkala 6 cm and Irinjalakkuda, Cherthala, Chengannur, Vaikom, Aryankavu and Punalur 4 cm of rainfall each. More than a dozen other centres received between 3cm and 1 cm of rainfall on the gauge.
*****
Monday, May 24, 2010
Conditions favourable for the onset of monsoon
http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/25/stories/2010052556570400.htm
Text of my monsoon-watch story published in The Hindu on May 25:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Monsoon-like weather prevailed over Thiruvananthapuram, the gateway of the southwest monsoon into the Indian subcontinent, on Monday, with the city and its neighbouring areas receiving a steady drizzle punctuated by pattering bouts of rainfall since noon.
The whole of the State too received rainfall during the day, heavy in some places. A low pressure system was in position over the Lakshadweep Islands drawing rain clouds to the region.
The winds have still not started flowing from the west or southwest into the State's coast for the initial establishment of the monsoon current over the subcontinent. The northern limit of this streamlined seasonal flow from the Indian Ocean had been passing through a point around 500 km south of the southern end of the State since Friday.
With Kerala receiving widespread rainfall over the last couple of days and conditions favouring the same weather to continue into the week, scientists at the India Meteorology Department (IMD) were meeting in New Delhi on Monday to review their earlier forecast of the likely date of monsoon onset over Kerala. They had earlier forecast the onset to take place on May 30, with a margin of variation of four days either way.
The onset conditions can now be ignited by two weather systems now active over the seas off the subcontinent. The first is the mild low pressure system that has fallen into place over the Lakshadweep Islands, which is the cause for the present widespread rainfall.
The second is another low pressure system, the remnant of the erstwhile severe cyclonic storm Laila, which was hovering over northwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal far away from Kerala on Monday. Taliparamba, Kozhikode, Piravam, Mavelikara, Mancompu, Chengannur, Kumarakom, Kollam and Thiruvanthapuram airport received 3 cm of rainfall each during the 24 hours ending 8.30 a.m. on Monday. The State is likely to receive isolated heavy rainfall during the next two days, director of Thiruvananthapuram Meteorology Centre K. Santhosh said.
*****
Text of my monsoon-watch story published in The Hindu on May 25:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Monsoon-like weather prevailed over Thiruvananthapuram, the gateway of the southwest monsoon into the Indian subcontinent, on Monday, with the city and its neighbouring areas receiving a steady drizzle punctuated by pattering bouts of rainfall since noon.
The whole of the State too received rainfall during the day, heavy in some places. A low pressure system was in position over the Lakshadweep Islands drawing rain clouds to the region.
The winds have still not started flowing from the west or southwest into the State's coast for the initial establishment of the monsoon current over the subcontinent. The northern limit of this streamlined seasonal flow from the Indian Ocean had been passing through a point around 500 km south of the southern end of the State since Friday.
With Kerala receiving widespread rainfall over the last couple of days and conditions favouring the same weather to continue into the week, scientists at the India Meteorology Department (IMD) were meeting in New Delhi on Monday to review their earlier forecast of the likely date of monsoon onset over Kerala. They had earlier forecast the onset to take place on May 30, with a margin of variation of four days either way.
The onset conditions can now be ignited by two weather systems now active over the seas off the subcontinent. The first is the mild low pressure system that has fallen into place over the Lakshadweep Islands, which is the cause for the present widespread rainfall.
The second is another low pressure system, the remnant of the erstwhile severe cyclonic storm Laila, which was hovering over northwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal far away from Kerala on Monday. Taliparamba, Kozhikode, Piravam, Mavelikara, Mancompu, Chengannur, Kumarakom, Kollam and Thiruvanthapuram airport received 3 cm of rainfall each during the 24 hours ending 8.30 a.m. on Monday. The State is likely to receive isolated heavy rainfall during the next two days, director of Thiruvananthapuram Meteorology Centre K. Santhosh said.
*****
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Cloudy, rainy days ahead
http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/23/stories/2010052354820500.htm
My monsoon-watch item in The Hindu on May 23:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Shifting clouds enveloped Kerala on Saturday, with rainfall occurring scattered with different intensity, as the southwest monsoon continued to stay around 500 km south of its southern end.
The erstwhile intense cyclonic storm Laila on Saturday lay docile as a low pressure area over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, releasing far-flung Kerala from its spell.
A high pressure system in the middle of the Arabian Sea was pushing the southwesterlies flowing from the Madagascar region in the Indian Ocean outward, forcing them to swerve round the tip of the peninsula into the Bay of Bengal.
Weather models of the Chennai regional meteorology centre on Saturday showed the possibility of widespread rainfall with heavy rainfall in some locations in north and central Kerala on Sunday. They showed the trend spreading by degrees to south Kerala over the next three days.
The highest rainfall recorded during the 24 hours ending 8.30 a.m. on Saturday was 2 cm at Punalur, Thiruvananthapuram airport and Varkala.
*****
My monsoon-watch item in The Hindu on May 23:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Shifting clouds enveloped Kerala on Saturday, with rainfall occurring scattered with different intensity, as the southwest monsoon continued to stay around 500 km south of its southern end.
The erstwhile intense cyclonic storm Laila on Saturday lay docile as a low pressure area over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, releasing far-flung Kerala from its spell.
A high pressure system in the middle of the Arabian Sea was pushing the southwesterlies flowing from the Madagascar region in the Indian Ocean outward, forcing them to swerve round the tip of the peninsula into the Bay of Bengal.
Weather models of the Chennai regional meteorology centre on Saturday showed the possibility of widespread rainfall with heavy rainfall in some locations in north and central Kerala on Sunday. They showed the trend spreading by degrees to south Kerala over the next three days.
The highest rainfall recorded during the 24 hours ending 8.30 a.m. on Saturday was 2 cm at Punalur, Thiruvananthapuram airport and Varkala.
*****
Friday, May 21, 2010
Monsoon advances further
http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/22/stories/2010052254160400.htm
The following is the text of my monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 22:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The southwest monsoon is virtually at Kerala's doorstep, with the development of a convective system over the southeast Arabian Sea and nearby Comorin area on Friday.
The India Meteorology Department (IMD), in its bulletin for the day, announced the further advancement of the monsoon from the southern tip of Sri Lanka to the Comorin area. The northern limit of the monsoon, arcing from southwest to northeast below the peninsula, was on Friday lying about 500 km to the south of Thiruvananthapuram.
The State continued to receive good rainfall on Friday under the distant spell of the cyclonic storm ‘Laila' over the Bay of Bengal flank of the subcontinent. This system has weakened by degrees from the status of a ‘severe cyclonic storm' to a ‘cyclone' and then to a ‘deep depression' and to ‘depression' over the 24-hour period from Thursday noon. The depression lay centred at a point some 100 km inside the Andhra Pradesh coastline around noon on Friday.
According to IMD's numerical weather prediction models, there is the possibility of the weakened ‘Laila' emerging once again into the seas somewhere off the Orissa coast.
In that case, the system could regain its intensity. Its location in the Bay of Bengal at the time of its possible emergence into the seas could hamper the early progress of the monsoon into Kerala.
*****
The following is the text of my monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 22:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The southwest monsoon is virtually at Kerala's doorstep, with the development of a convective system over the southeast Arabian Sea and nearby Comorin area on Friday.
The India Meteorology Department (IMD), in its bulletin for the day, announced the further advancement of the monsoon from the southern tip of Sri Lanka to the Comorin area. The northern limit of the monsoon, arcing from southwest to northeast below the peninsula, was on Friday lying about 500 km to the south of Thiruvananthapuram.
The State continued to receive good rainfall on Friday under the distant spell of the cyclonic storm ‘Laila' over the Bay of Bengal flank of the subcontinent. This system has weakened by degrees from the status of a ‘severe cyclonic storm' to a ‘cyclone' and then to a ‘deep depression' and to ‘depression' over the 24-hour period from Thursday noon. The depression lay centred at a point some 100 km inside the Andhra Pradesh coastline around noon on Friday.
According to IMD's numerical weather prediction models, there is the possibility of the weakened ‘Laila' emerging once again into the seas somewhere off the Orissa coast.
In that case, the system could regain its intensity. Its location in the Bay of Bengal at the time of its possible emergence into the seas could hamper the early progress of the monsoon into Kerala.
*****
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Drenching bouts of rainfall in State
http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/21/stories/2010052162030400.htm
(My monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 21)
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The whole of Kerala snuggled under a blanket of swirling rainclouds on Thursday to enjoy drenching bouts of rainfall.
The severe cyclonic storm Laila battering Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu was spinning centred at a point close to the coast of Andhra Pradesh at 2.30 p.m., according to an India Meteorological Department (IMD's) bulletin for the day. It was slated to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast and turn right into Orissa and weaken.
Animated charts of the IMD tracing its movement showed the system drawing the winds from southwest Indian Ocean into a streamline across south Kerala towards northeast by Sunday, an ideal situation for the monsoon conditions to set in over the State. The northern limit of the monsoon on Thursday was still more than 1,000 km to the south of the southern tip of the State. Its progress into Kerala earlier than the usual June 1 call date now hinges on the dynamics of Laila up the country's east coast.
Heavy rainfall
Alappuzha and nearby Cherthala received a heavy rainfall of 8 cm during the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Thursday. Kozha in Kottayam district received 7 cm of rainfall. Several other stations measured rainfall ranging between 6 cm and 1 cm on the gauge. ‘Most places' is the term used by the IMD, which means hardly any station had gone without measurable rainfall during the day.
The prospects are for continued rainfall during the next two days.
*****
(My monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 21)
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The whole of Kerala snuggled under a blanket of swirling rainclouds on Thursday to enjoy drenching bouts of rainfall.
The severe cyclonic storm Laila battering Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu was spinning centred at a point close to the coast of Andhra Pradesh at 2.30 p.m., according to an India Meteorological Department (IMD's) bulletin for the day. It was slated to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast and turn right into Orissa and weaken.
Animated charts of the IMD tracing its movement showed the system drawing the winds from southwest Indian Ocean into a streamline across south Kerala towards northeast by Sunday, an ideal situation for the monsoon conditions to set in over the State. The northern limit of the monsoon on Thursday was still more than 1,000 km to the south of the southern tip of the State. Its progress into Kerala earlier than the usual June 1 call date now hinges on the dynamics of Laila up the country's east coast.
Heavy rainfall
Alappuzha and nearby Cherthala received a heavy rainfall of 8 cm during the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Thursday. Kozha in Kottayam district received 7 cm of rainfall. Several other stations measured rainfall ranging between 6 cm and 1 cm on the gauge. ‘Most places' is the term used by the IMD, which means hardly any station had gone without measurable rainfall during the day.
The prospects are for continued rainfall during the next two days.
*****
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
‘Laila' to bring in more rain
http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/20/stories/2010052061320400.htm
The following is the text of my 'monsoon watch' story in The Hindu on May 20:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The cyclonic storm ‘Laila' in the Bay of Bengal gained in strength overnight and spun closer to the eastern coast of the country to lie centred around a point some 150 km northeast of Chennai on Wednesday afternoon, sucking into its vortex the rainclouds of the entire seas around.
Satellite picture on Wednesday showed the outer bands of the cyclone circling from north to south tangential to the Kerala coast and not the ideal southwesterly or westerly direction that could send the clouds thudding into the Western Ghats to bring heavy rainfall in the State.
The pressure charts of the India Meteorology Department on Wednesday, however, showed an atmospheric trough looping from the near offshore regions into the hinterlands of the State and this is as ideal condition for precipitation.
Wednesday's record
The heaviest recorded rainfall in the State during the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Wednesday was 5 cm at Kunnamkulam in Thrissur district. Many other stations recorded rainfall ranging from 1 cm to 3 cm on the gauge. The prospects are for continued rainfall, because the cyclone is traced to roll up the ridge of the eastern flank of the peninsula drawing moisture from southeast Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean and the entire Bay of Bengal.
The flow from southeast Arabian Sea could take a direction across the breadth of the State to bring Kerala under more rainfall over the next two days.
*****
The following is the text of my 'monsoon watch' story in The Hindu on May 20:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The cyclonic storm ‘Laila' in the Bay of Bengal gained in strength overnight and spun closer to the eastern coast of the country to lie centred around a point some 150 km northeast of Chennai on Wednesday afternoon, sucking into its vortex the rainclouds of the entire seas around.
Satellite picture on Wednesday showed the outer bands of the cyclone circling from north to south tangential to the Kerala coast and not the ideal southwesterly or westerly direction that could send the clouds thudding into the Western Ghats to bring heavy rainfall in the State.
The pressure charts of the India Meteorology Department on Wednesday, however, showed an atmospheric trough looping from the near offshore regions into the hinterlands of the State and this is as ideal condition for precipitation.
Wednesday's record
The heaviest recorded rainfall in the State during the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Wednesday was 5 cm at Kunnamkulam in Thrissur district. Many other stations recorded rainfall ranging from 1 cm to 3 cm on the gauge. The prospects are for continued rainfall, because the cyclone is traced to roll up the ridge of the eastern flank of the peninsula drawing moisture from southeast Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean and the entire Bay of Bengal.
The flow from southeast Arabian Sea could take a direction across the breadth of the State to bring Kerala under more rainfall over the next two days.
*****
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Bay cyclone impacts weather in Kerala
http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/19/stories/2010051954790400.htm
The following is the text of my monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 19:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Depression over the bay takes the form of a full-fledged cyclonic storm, named ‘Laila.'
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: A full-fledged cyclonic storm, ‘Laila,' was spinning over southeast and the adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal on Tuesday, impacting the weather over Kerala.
Monday's depression over the bay had graduated into the cyclonic storm and had been moving towards the east coast of the peninsula. Around noon on Tuesday it lay centred over a point nearly 570 km east-southeast of Chennai.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said the system was likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwest direction for some more time and then move in a northwest to north direction during the next 72 hours towards the Andhra Pradesh coast.
Satellite pictures showed rainclouds spinning towards the storm from the seas all around, even from southeast Arabian Sea. Within the far outer rings of the influence of the cyclone, a trough was in position off the north Kerala coast precipitating widespread rainfall in the area.
Pattambi in Palakkad district received a heavy downpour of 7 cm during the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Tuesday.
More than a dozen other rain measuring centres of the IMD in the State measured rainfall ranging between 4 cm and 1 cm.
Director of the Meteorology Centre in Thiruvananthapuram K. Santhosh said the prospects were for continued widespread rainfall in the State for the next two or three days.
*****
The following is the text of my monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 19:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Depression over the bay takes the form of a full-fledged cyclonic storm, named ‘Laila.'
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: A full-fledged cyclonic storm, ‘Laila,' was spinning over southeast and the adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal on Tuesday, impacting the weather over Kerala.
Monday's depression over the bay had graduated into the cyclonic storm and had been moving towards the east coast of the peninsula. Around noon on Tuesday it lay centred over a point nearly 570 km east-southeast of Chennai.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said the system was likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwest direction for some more time and then move in a northwest to north direction during the next 72 hours towards the Andhra Pradesh coast.
Satellite pictures showed rainclouds spinning towards the storm from the seas all around, even from southeast Arabian Sea. Within the far outer rings of the influence of the cyclone, a trough was in position off the north Kerala coast precipitating widespread rainfall in the area.
Pattambi in Palakkad district received a heavy downpour of 7 cm during the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Tuesday.
More than a dozen other rain measuring centres of the IMD in the State measured rainfall ranging between 4 cm and 1 cm.
Director of the Meteorology Centre in Thiruvananthapuram K. Santhosh said the prospects were for continued widespread rainfall in the State for the next two or three days.
*****
Monday, May 17, 2010
Monsoon round the corner
http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/18/stories/2010051853490400.htm
Text of my monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 18:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The upper level cyclonic circulation that hovered over southeast Bay of Bengal on Sunday morning intensified into a low pressure system by the same day evening and thence by degrees strengthened into a depression by Monday noon, causing heavy rainfall in the territory.
The system also floated closer to the country's east coast, moving in a northwest direction during the one-day period and lay centred on noon on Monday about 930 km east-south-east of Chennai, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says in its bulletin.
It is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move initially to northwest and hit the Andhra Pradesh coast in a couple of days.
The significance of the system for Kerala is this: It can orient the direction of the flow of winds from the Arabian Sea across the length of the State, speeding up the onset of the monsoon over the State.
The system promises to lend a measure of dynamism to the start of the season in Kerala and the country as a whole, but much will depend on how it behaves during the next three or four days.
In the Andamans
The IMD on Monday announced the start of the monsoon over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and most parts of the Andaman Sea.
The monsoon usually sweeps into the Indian region in an anti-clockwise and northward direction from the south, its first outpost being the Andaman Islands.
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Text of my monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 18:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The upper level cyclonic circulation that hovered over southeast Bay of Bengal on Sunday morning intensified into a low pressure system by the same day evening and thence by degrees strengthened into a depression by Monday noon, causing heavy rainfall in the territory.
The system also floated closer to the country's east coast, moving in a northwest direction during the one-day period and lay centred on noon on Monday about 930 km east-south-east of Chennai, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says in its bulletin.
It is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move initially to northwest and hit the Andhra Pradesh coast in a couple of days.
The significance of the system for Kerala is this: It can orient the direction of the flow of winds from the Arabian Sea across the length of the State, speeding up the onset of the monsoon over the State.
The system promises to lend a measure of dynamism to the start of the season in Kerala and the country as a whole, but much will depend on how it behaves during the next three or four days.
In the Andamans
The IMD on Monday announced the start of the monsoon over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and most parts of the Andaman Sea.
The monsoon usually sweeps into the Indian region in an anti-clockwise and northward direction from the south, its first outpost being the Andaman Islands.
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Sunday, May 16, 2010
Early onset of monsoon likely
http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/17/stories/2010051755020400.htm
This is the text of my report on the monsoon in The Hindu on May 17:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The southwest monsoon is likely to break over Kerala, the gateway of the onrush of seasonal rainclouds over the Indian subcontinent, in the next few days.
The numerical weather prediction charts of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have begun to show cross equatorial wind flow at lower levels beginning over the Indian Ocean towards the subcontinent from the southern hemisphere, a condition that sets the monsoon engine chugging.
Two weather systems too were in position on Sunday — a low pressure area over southwest Arabian Sea and an upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay of Bengal. Satellite picture showed rainclouds climbing up on both sides of the subcontinent.
But the ideal southwest orientation of the winds to drive the clouds across the west coast was yet to fall into place.
The IMD on Sunday said conditions were favourable for the onset of the monsoon over south Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and southeast Bay of Bengal during the next two days.
Usually it takes a week after the setting in of the monsoon over the Andaman Sea for the rain to rush into the Indian mainland through Kerala. The gap could be shorter this time, judging from the numerical weather prediction charts of the IMD that simulate the possible evolution of the atmosphere conditions for seven days to come.
The wind speeds off the Kerala coast are seen to pick up and the low pressure system in the Bay is traced to move closer to the eastern coast of the subcontinent orienting the flow of the winds from the Arabian Sea in a more ideal direction than now across the Kerala coast, bringing the State under the first onslaught of monsoon rain by next Saturday or Sunday, more than a week ahead of the usual schedule.
*****
This is the text of my report on the monsoon in The Hindu on May 17:
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The southwest monsoon is likely to break over Kerala, the gateway of the onrush of seasonal rainclouds over the Indian subcontinent, in the next few days.
The numerical weather prediction charts of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have begun to show cross equatorial wind flow at lower levels beginning over the Indian Ocean towards the subcontinent from the southern hemisphere, a condition that sets the monsoon engine chugging.
Two weather systems too were in position on Sunday — a low pressure area over southwest Arabian Sea and an upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay of Bengal. Satellite picture showed rainclouds climbing up on both sides of the subcontinent.
But the ideal southwest orientation of the winds to drive the clouds across the west coast was yet to fall into place.
The IMD on Sunday said conditions were favourable for the onset of the monsoon over south Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and southeast Bay of Bengal during the next two days.
Usually it takes a week after the setting in of the monsoon over the Andaman Sea for the rain to rush into the Indian mainland through Kerala. The gap could be shorter this time, judging from the numerical weather prediction charts of the IMD that simulate the possible evolution of the atmosphere conditions for seven days to come.
The wind speeds off the Kerala coast are seen to pick up and the low pressure system in the Bay is traced to move closer to the eastern coast of the subcontinent orienting the flow of the winds from the Arabian Sea in a more ideal direction than now across the Kerala coast, bringing the State under the first onslaught of monsoon rain by next Saturday or Sunday, more than a week ahead of the usual schedule.
*****
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