Monsoon onset likely in 3-4 days, says IMD

My monsoon-watch story filed on May 27. It was not published on May 28 since our New Delhi bureau had also filed a report based on IMD sources:

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday announced the likelihood of the southwest monsoon setting in over Kerala any time during the next three-four days.
In its bulletin for the day, the IMD said conditions were becoming favourable for the monsoon onset. The outlook for the period up to June 1 favours a steady increase in rainfall activity over Lakshadweep, Kerala and south Karnataka.
The IMD’s atmospheric pressure charts show a trough (channel of drop in atmospheric pressure) looping from the near offshore areas of the State into the inlands, suggesting ideal conditions for the precipitation of water vapour. The winds from the Indian Ocean too have assumed westerly direction almost up to the very southern tip of the peninsula.
Along the length of the State’s coastline, the winds are beginning to churn. Numerical weather prediction models indicate the possibility of an upper air cyclonic circulation forming over the southeast Arabian Sea close to the State’s shore within the next two-three days.
This could spin the monsoon flow anticlockwise on course into the peninsula from its present west-to-east direction past the Comerin area, besides causing heavy rainfall within the range of its perambulating movement.
Rainfall occurred at many places along the coast of the State on Thursday. During the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m., Thalassery and Kottayam received 4 cm of rainfall each, Kannur and Vadakara 3 cm each and Thiruvananthapuram airport 2 cm of rainfall. Midland places such as Piravam, Mavelikara, Konni and Nedumangad also received 1 cm of rainfall each. Deeper inland, Aryankavu received 1 cm rainfall.

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