Early onset of monsoon likely

http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/17/stories/2010051755020400.htm

This is the text of my report on the monsoon in The Hindu on May 17:

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The southwest monsoon is likely to break over Kerala, the gateway of the onrush of seasonal rainclouds over the Indian subcontinent, in the next few days.

The numerical weather prediction charts of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have begun to show cross equatorial wind flow at lower levels beginning over the Indian Ocean towards the subcontinent from the southern hemisphere, a condition that sets the monsoon engine chugging.

Two weather systems too were in position on Sunday — a low pressure area over southwest Arabian Sea and an upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay of Bengal. Satellite picture showed rainclouds climbing up on both sides of the subcontinent.

But the ideal southwest orientation of the winds to drive the clouds across the west coast was yet to fall into place.

The IMD on Sunday said conditions were favourable for the onset of the monsoon over south Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and southeast Bay of Bengal during the next two days.

Usually it takes a week after the setting in of the monsoon over the Andaman Sea for the rain to rush into the Indian mainland through Kerala. The gap could be shorter this time, judging from the numerical weather prediction charts of the IMD that simulate the possible evolution of the atmosphere conditions for seven days to come.

The wind speeds off the Kerala coast are seen to pick up and the low pressure system in the Bay is traced to move closer to the eastern coast of the subcontinent orienting the flow of the winds from the Arabian Sea in a more ideal direction than now across the Kerala coast, bringing the State under the first onslaught of monsoon rain by next Saturday or Sunday, more than a week ahead of the usual schedule.

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