Increase in rainfall forecast

http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/29/stories/2010052960370400.htm

My monsoon-watch story in The Hindu on May 29:

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday saw the beginnings of a cyclonic circulation in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the southeast Arabian Sea holding promise of an increase in the intensity of rainfall in the coastal areas of Kerala.

The experimental Global Forecasting System products of the IMD show the winds perambulating over the region turning anticlockwise the monsoon flow from the southwest Indian Ocean into the southern part of the peninsula over the next two days from its present orientation from west to east very close to the southern tip of the State.

The model also indicates a progressive strengthening of the winds over the next two-three days, which would mean the high range areas of the State getting their first substantial rain of the unfolding season by the beginning of next week as the winds blow the rainclouds deep inland.

The IMD in its bulletin for the day announced its expectation of the monsoon onset over Kerala on May 31. Models indicate the development of organised convection over the south Arabian Sea from May 30 and the convection growing into a monsoon onset vortex close to the State's coast.

Although the vortex subsequently is traced to spin away from the coast in a north-northwest direction, it is expected to strengthen the southwesterly monsoon flow into the State's coast.

Nedumangad received heavy rainfall of 9 cm during the 24 hours ending 8.30 a.m. on Friday. Mancompu received 6 cm of rainfall, Koyilandy 3 cm and Alappuzha and Kanjarappally 2 cm each.

The catchments of Idukki hydroelectric project received moderate widespread rainfall, with Peerumedu getting 2 cm and Idukki town 1 cm. Aryankavu deep inland also received 1 cm of rainfall.

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